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Archive for September, 2010

Market Morning 9/29/10 $SPX $SPY $ES_F $YM_F $CL_F $GC_F $TF_F $CRM $MOS

Posted by Dino on September 29, 2010

Once again futures are flat and overseas traded mixed last night.  Little on the economic release side that might influence the markets direction today so we may be in for another chop fest with little direction like yesterday’s action.  Yesterday was a bit of a pain in the ass if you’re a longer term trader but heaven if your scalping or day trading.  A couple of bullish things did come out of yesterdays action enough to keep longs in the game.  All 4 major indices put in some hammer candlesticks with some long lower shadows.  This along with the Russel 2K showing some relative strength peeking it’s head past some prior resistance may show that there’s some hope left.

Still looking to raise some cash.  CRM hasn’t impressed me with it’s action so I’ll probably close that out today or tomorrow and will more than likely close out my MOS position prior to earnings.  I would be very pissed if I lost my gains just to gamble on an earnings play.

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Trade Review $DNDN 9/28/10

Posted by Dino on September 28, 2010

I was stopped out of the second half of my position in DNDN this afternoon after shares started tumbling on the release of voting questions were posted on the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services website.   “The questions ask the panel members to use a 1-5 scale to identify their confidence level in Provenge’s ability to improve overall survival, control disease related symptoms and lessen the burden associated with cancer therapy, among other questions.”  Check out an article written by Adam Feuerstein  on TheStreet.com for more information regarding this development.

For me, it doesn’t really matter why there was a sell off in this trade.  I didn’t enter the trade based upon Provenge data or any other real fundamental reason.  It was primarily the technicals that I entered the trade and technicals that took me out of the trade.

Entry: Entered with a full position on 8/19 after it had popped up over the 200 day SMA on huge volume and on a pull back to trendline support.

Trade Management: Initial stop loss was set beneath the 200 day SMA and I almost got stopped out but it ultimately held.  On 9/2 DNDN spiked and I took off half the trade for a gain of 8.79% and moved S/L to no less than break even.  At this point I wanted to let the trade ride out to and close the position with a trailing “Chandelier Stop”.  I’ll write a post about the specifics later but it is based on a multiple of the Average True Range.  For this trade I chose a 2 times daily ATR stop and today that stop was hit at $40.38 and I was filled at $40.35.

Overall I’m happy with the trade and the 8.4% profit.  Disappointed that I did get out only 4 cents above the lows and it appears that this was just an over-reaction by the markets but I stuck to my trading plan, exited with a nice profit and will move to a new position.  If I were to change anything I may review my multiplier on the Chandelier Stop to about 3 to better account for the volatility in something like DNDN seeing that this appears to be just a whip-saw but hindsight is 20/20.

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Market Morning 9/28/10 $SPX $ES_F $SPY $DIA $USO $GLD $DXY

Posted by Dino on September 28, 2010

Always know what can make, (or more importantly) lose you money today.

Futures up slightly this morning as the overnight trading pare their losses and wait for economic releases.  The Case-Shiller 20 City index will be released at 9:00 am eastern which should give the indices some direction today.  Housing data has been a market mover the past couple of weeks with some upside surprises sending futures higher on their release.

Yesterday the S&P stopped short of 1150 resistance and pulled back a bit to close near their lows at 1142.  Barring any major economic news coming out, I’d like to see the S&P pull back slightly and test the 1130 level, show support and then take off from there to test the 1150.

Over the rest of this week I would like to sell into some strength and raise some cash, looking for the leaders for the next move higher.

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Market Morning 9/27/10 $SPX $ES_F $SPY $DIA $QQQQ $IWM $DXY $CL_F $GLD

Posted by Dino on September 27, 2010

Always know what can make, (or more importantly) lose you money today.

Quiet start to the new trading week after the S&P and the Dow breaking out of it’s summer trading range.  Futures are slightly higher.  The S&P is once again up against a bit of previous resistance at 1150.   The Nasdaq is in some open territory so it has room to move.  The Dow has some upper channel resistance but is acting very strong and wouldn’t expect it to slow it down too much.  The only laggard is the Russel which still hasn’t broken out convincingly above the upper resistance of 672-675.

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Market Morning 9/24/10 $SPY $ES_F $SPX $YM_F $GC $DIA $GLD $CL_F w/ Pivot Points

Posted by Dino on September 24, 2010

Always know what can make, (or more importantly) lose you money today.

Futures up a bit this morning as Asian and European markets traded mixed over night.  Gold futures once again hit all-time highs and poked its head above the 1300 level and is currently chopping right around 1300.  Futures are showing some strength and if Dow and S&P futures can break out of this flag it’s put in the past couple of days we could have a strong day.  The S&P’s will still have to take back the 1130 level which is right about the level the SPX would open at right now.

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Blood on the Street but I’m Still Green! $SPX $SPY $ES_F $MOS $DFS $AMT

Posted by Dino on September 23, 2010

S&P –0.83% Dow -0.72% Nasdaq -0.32% Russel 2k -1.2%

Me +0.60%

All right…may not be “blood on the street.”  Bit of a paper cut really.  The Bears tried to pull everything down early in the day but couldn’t get traction until 2:30 this afternoon when they dropped everything to the day’s lows.  It was a fairly broad sell off with the Fins leading the pack downwards.

Fortunately, I had what I would call a helluva day.  IGOI, AMT, DFS, VMED and MOS all ended with positive prints with fairly strong volume.

IGOI came off of its deal with CSCO, AMT close to all time highs again, DFS coming off a strong earnings report, VMED on a technical breakout trying to put in  a new 52 week high and MOS….well don’t know what was going on with that.  The rest of the major Ags didn’t perform near as well.  Maybe a rumor of BHP switching from POT to MOS???  I have no clue.  What I do know is that with these performing as strong as they did today I’m definitely holding on for a bit longer to see what happens.

CRM and DNDN were red-headed step children of my holdings today.  They just followed the rest of the market like sheep.  Will keep a tight leash on them.

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Unemployment Gives the Bears Traction $SPY $ES_F $SPX

Posted by Dino on September 23, 2010

This morning the DOL announced that last week initial claims rose 12,000 from last week to 465,000 claims and the futures spiked down on that news.  This news is giving the Bears a bit of a boost but the question is how far can they drag it down?  S&P Futures may find some support near the 1,117 level but if that gives way, the next level appears to be near 1,110.

Back in August pops were sold into in a series of lower highs and lower lows.  That changed in September after a base of 1040 was put in and dips were bought leading to higher highs and higher lows.  If things start changing and the dips are no longer bought we could be testing a 38.2%  retracement down to 1103 or a 50% retracement at 1090.

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Market Morning 9/23/10 $SPY $ES_F $DIA $QQQQ $IWM $GLD $CL_F w/ Pivot Points

Posted by Dino on September 23, 2010

Always know what can make, (or more importantly) lose you money today.

Overnight futures gave back some gains as the S&P futures fell back below 1130.  No damage has been done technically but today is the release of Unemployment Initial and Continuing Claims numbers.   Due to the recent poor job creation the markets have paid increased attention to these numbers as an indication of the monthly unemployment numbers.  If the numbers are worse than expected we could get pulled back into that trading range….which would suck.

Oh yeah…..The NBER says we’ve been out of the recession since June of 2009!  Champagne corks were heard popping at unemployment offices all over America….. http://stk.ly/a57mVn

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Ping Pong? $SPX $SPY $ES_F $DIA $QQQQ $IWM with @gtotoy “Vacuum Theory”

Posted by Dino on September 22, 2010

The markets are respecting their trend lines and support/resistance levels so far today and traders have been playing Pong with those levels the past two days.  I don’t believe these levels will last for long.  @gtotoy posted a great analysis of his “Vacuum Theory” (aka Kirby Theory) on chart.ly today and it’s definitely worth watching. The “Vacuum Theory”

Yesterday the S&P came just short of previous resistance of 1150 yesterday and tested the 1130 resistance turned support this morning.

The Dow hit its upper channel trend line then bounced back down to resistance now turned support at 10700.

The Russel failed to break resistance but is still above a rising 50 day and 200 say SMA…so it has that going for it…which is nice.

The Nasdaq keeps kickin’ ass and taking names like AAPL, NFLX, et. al.  along with it to new 52 week highs.   It took a breather the past couple days but is leading nonetheless.

If the Nasdaq continues to stay strong, the S&P and the Dow break above that short term resistance and the Russel 2k plays some catch up @gtotoy ‘s “Vacuum Theory” has an excellent chance of coming to fruition.

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Market Morning 9/22/10 $SPY $DIA $QQQQ $IWM $DXY $GLD $CL_F $USO w/ Pivot Points

Posted by Dino on September 22, 2010

Always know what can make, (or more importantly) lose you money today.

Futures are slightly lower this morning as Gold futures popped over 1.5% to all time highs.  The Dollar Index continued it’s decline to levels not seen since March of this year.

Nothing new out of the Fed yesterday except a bit of willingness to ease monetary policy in order to boost the economy.  Gold popped and the Dollar dropped and the market struggled to find a direction and choppiness prevailed the rest of the day.

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