Wall Street Crack

For Those Addicted to the Wall Street Game

Archive for October, 2010

Tis the Season – Gary Hoey: Hocus Pocus

Posted by Dino on October 29, 2010

Almost all year long I put this song in the back of my mind and pretty much forget about it, but right around Halloween it seems like I always remember to dust it off and give it a spin.


 

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New Trade: $ATPG 10/27/10

Posted by Dino on October 27, 2010

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Video Review of the $SPX $SPY 10/26/10

Posted by Dino on October 26, 2010

First video attempt.  Still trying to work out any kinks and getting used to recording.

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$RIG – Pain in the Ass

Posted by Dino on October 7, 2010

Right now RIG is down a little over 2% on the day but it is at worst a pain in the ass.  I got a good entry near support at $62.80 but was expecting it to move around prior to breakout so I sized my position accordingly.  I bought less shares so that the total amount of money risked is within my risk parameters.  RIG is pulling back again and testing the trendline but the positive thing is that the volume is currently anemic.  Currently it’s traded just under 2 million when it’s average daily volume is near 8.4 million.  I believe there is little conviction in this pullback and the price could pop back up very easily.  That being said, I don’t make money on volume.  @alphatrends is absolutely correct in saying that “Only price pays” and if it does continued to drop back into the channel before the pain in the ass turns in to a kick in the nuts.

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New Trade: $BIDU 10/7/10

Posted by Dino on October 7, 2010

BIDU is a stock that I’ve wanted to get into for a while.  Ever since the split earlier this year it’s either been too extended in my mind or I convince myself that the BIDU run is over….a week later I kick myself for not getting involved.

BIDU broke out to all time highs and has since pulled back and is forming a nice flag pattern.  I went long on pull back to just above the 13 SMA where it has shown support the past couple of days.  My first target will be the 110.50 area which is a 127.2 fib extension from the all time highs to the higher low.  After that I’ll take a bit off the table and likely let it ride until I’m stopped out with a Chandelier Stop which is currently set to 3 times the daily ATR.  That is currently 86.27 but I’m not sure if i want to give it that much room in the beginning.  It is within my risk parameters but I may decide to raise it initially.

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Blog Roll 10/6/10 w/ @KirkReport @ChartPornOrg @EddyElfenbein and others $$

Posted by Dino on October 6, 2010

Links to some good blog posts today.

KirkReport.com lists some great rules to trade by.

ChartPorn.org  – Mobile Phone Industry Everyone’s suing someone and Nokia’s suing everyone!

Kid Dynamite’s take on the EQIX Beatdown.

Eddy Elfenbein Pens His Nobel Submission on Gold Prices.

Reformed Broker on EQIX’s  “Public Execution”

The State of the Market…@chartswingtrade

I’m paying particular attention to @chartswingrrader’s warning and the blood bath in the Cloud industry today.  Most of the possibly now “former” market leaders got their ass handed to them today and I’m at least much more likely to sell off positions and raise some cash for the short term if this isn’t a buying opportunity.

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Market Morning 10/6/10 $ES_F $SPX $SPY $YM_F $USDX $USO

Posted by Dino on October 6, 2010

Always know what can make, (or more importantly) lose you money today.

Yesterday the S&P sliced through the 1150 level and held like a champ during the day and in overnight trading.  Those overnight gains were likely sustained by overseas trading which most major indices showed fairly substantial gains.  Japans style of QE2 has apparently buoyed the expectations that other governments will enact some sort of market stimulus but is this sustainable?  Was the markets rally in September based upon the hope of QE2 and the now continuation of that rally based upon an expectation of further easing?

There are still technical and fundamental obstacles in the way.  The 200 week SMA for the S&P & the Dow lay ahead and 52 week highs represent the levels at which the “Flash Crash” occurred and that may provide some hesitation for traders.  The Nasdaq and the Russel 2k have already passed their 200 levels and they are now acting as support.  Most of todays economic news is out and the ADP employment numbers were at best a disappointment with a reading of -39K drop in payrolls.  The futures took a bit of a hit and are off their highs but most traders will wait for the more influential Inital and Continuing Claims tomorrow morning and the September Employment Situation on Friday.

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Trade Review $MOS 10/5/10 $STUDY

Posted by Dino on October 5, 2010

So it’s a bit late but I want to continue to review my trades as much as I can so that I can learn from them.  I was stopped out of my remaining MOS position on 9/30.

Trade Entry: MOS had appeared to bottomed out on 7/1 and was rising with an ascending triangle that it broke out of on 8/2.  Entered a full position on that day anticipating to take profits around 8-10% and let the rest ride until I was taken out with a Chandelier Trailing Stop.

Trade Management: I was doing well in the trade when BHP announced it’s offer to buy out POT w/ a decent premium to where it had been trading.  This lifted almost all the Ag Fert stocks significantly so I sold half of my position into that strength for a 13% profit on half.  I kept my trailing stop in place as planned and on 9/28 MOS started selling off and continued for the next couple of days.  I checked my stop which read 58.11 on my tracking sheet but that didn’t seem right.  I was using a 3 x ATR and it should have been tracking up with the high.  I checked my calculations and a link had broken and the stop didn’t get up dated.  It should have been 60.85 and I should have been stopped out.  The previous day.  I placed my stop beneath it’s intraday swing low on 9/30 and that was taken out.   I was planning on taking profits prior to MOS earning release so that I did not risk losing profits already made and even though MOS is currently trading at 61.66 I’m glad I’m out.  Could have easily gone the other way.

Must keep an eye on spread sheets to make sure they are up-to-date and working properly.

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Market Morning 10/5/10 $ES_F $SPY $SPX $YM_F $GC_F $GLD $CL_F $USD $QQQQ

Posted by Dino on October 5, 2010

Always know what can make, (or more importantly) lose you money today.

European and Asian markets are primarily up after the Bank of Japan cut its interest rates and pledged to by $60 billion of assets.  Futures are currently up and it appears that we may be battling back and forth between the S&P 1130 & 1150 levels.  Yesterday selling dominated but we did not breach that 1130 level.  I’m guessing we may stay between these two levels until Thursday or Friday when the Employment situation is announced.

Crude continues its recent climb as Gold yet again makes new highs.  This continues to be an Equity, Treasury and Commodity rally while the dollar continues to get smacked down.

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Potential Pull-Back Supports $ES_F $SPX $SPY

Posted by Dino on October 4, 2010

So the markets are in the midst of a bit of a pull back.  Most would say this was expected and healthy and I would agree.  There needs to be some profit taking.  And in the words of Brian Shannon (@alphatrends) where has it come from and where does it have the potential to go?

Th most obvious support would be in the simple Support/Resistance lines and 1130 would be the first level.  That level has held today and late in the day it appears that buyers are stepping in now that it has shown to hold.  Beneath the 1130 level would be 1120 where this minor, previous resistance coincides with the 200 day SMA.   These two levels provide quite a bit of support.   1100 is support but if we hit that in the next day or two most people in the market would be scared shit-less and we could chop through that quickly.

Fib retracements provide support at the 1130, 1113 & 1100 levels which only go to strengthen the argument that there are a number of supports that can hold this market in place for a short time.  I am a buy on this dip to 1130 ish and initiated a long position in RIG as the basic materials sector has show relative strength the past couple of weeks.  If there are still some slow dips down I would look to start some other positions but as of now I haven’t decided which I would like to buy.   If there is a fundamental change in the markets such as an extremely poor economic announcement, I would rethink adding any longs.

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