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Archive for November, 2010

Drop and Chop w/ a twist of Reversal & Breakout $SPY $ES_F $RIG $ATPG $IGOI

Posted by Dino on November 29, 2010

What looked to be a potential rally day today turned into a drop and chop today with almost picture perfect bounce off the 50 day SMA for the $SPY.  Many buy orders were sitting there waiting to pounce and they did just that.

While the bounce was very nice and it may have saved us from a precipitous drop in the short term, we are now back into the range bound area of the past 2 weeks. So……what now?  Recent history tells us that we should expect a rally between now and Christmas.  @ChessNwine wrote a somewhat succinct piece on the same time period for the past 8 years and if history repeats itself we should be in for a bit of a rally into the new year.

With the exception of BIDU, most of my holdings had at least a decent day.  IGOI broke out again today on tremendous volume.  RIG and ATPG ended the day with very respectable gains.  And while DFS and ACTG were down most of the day they climbed back to be nearly flat which is a positive in my book.

With a slew of relatively substantial economic releases to come over the next week I would expect us to stay range bound for a few days in the general market with the exception of Oil and Oil related equities.  The entire industry appears to be ready for a break out and rising oil prices may be the impetus for the break out.

 

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11/29/10 – Futures Lower $ES_F $YM_F $SPY $DIA

Posted by Dino on November 29, 2010

Futures on their lows after being up most of the overnight trading session.  Apparently the Ireland bailout and Black Friday weren’t enough to lift the markets as of now.  Will need the S&P to hold 1173 on a daily close in order for me to have at least some confidence in my current longs.

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$IGOI – Nice…..

Posted by Dino on November 26, 2010

IGOI was up nicely today.  12.55% on relatively heavy volume.  I’m currently up over 92% with an average cost per share of $1.58.  Not sure exactly why at this point.  Can’t find any information that isn’t already out there that may lead to such a rise.  Could be some rumors of heavy Black Friday Sales.  Anyone else have any ideas?

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Happy Thanksgiving!

Posted by Dino on November 24, 2010

 

Count your blessings, enjoy time with those whom you care about or care about you and most importantly….

Have a Happy and Safe Thanksgiving!

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Gold Head & Shoulders Reversal Entry $GLD $GC_F $DZZ

Posted by Dino on November 23, 2010

So unless you’ve been living in a cave, you should be quite aware that Gold has had one helluva run.  GLD has gained about 19% since the beginning of the year and has simply been a beast.  But if you are bearish and believe we might have hit a short term top, there is a possible great entry point developing today.

Almost everyone is familiar with the good old Head and Shoulders pattern and there could be a set up in Gold based upon that pattern.  Below is GLD Daily and the Head & Sholders Pattern is easy to point out.

The typical way to play the pattern and the confirmation of it is to wait for a break down beneath the neck line.  But if you’re a bit impatient and want to get in a bit early, you can use Fibonacci Retracements for an entry today.

If you were to draw your Fib Retracements from the high on 11/9 to the lows of 11/16 you will see that the 50% retracement is at $134.49.  Today GLD rallied to within 3 cents of the left shoulder and quickly retreated making the left shoulder level resistance for the time being.  Typically a good fib play is to hit the 50% retracement with a stop at the  61.8% retracement.  If this does in fact turn out to be a Head and Shoulders reversal in Gold then you are already well positioned to with this set up to take advantage of it.

You can play this using Short Gold Futures, Short the Gold ETF, Long GLD or Gold Futures Puts.  If you can’t trade options, futures or be short a position then you can also play this going long the Gold Inverse inverse ETF, DZZ.   The pattern is in play on all of these charts.  The only small difference is DZZ where it is an Inverse Head and Shoulders reversal.

Be careful though because one of the themes in  the rally from the March 09 lows has been failed bearish patterns turning into huge moves.  There have been more than a few failed H&S that have turned into huge advances.

As always, use proper risk/reward and position sizing.

No Position

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Trade Idea: Long $BIDU

Posted by Dino on November 22, 2010

BIDU has put in some bullish hammers the past couple of days and it looks like it’s likely to go higher.  It’s seen resistance at $109.60 with short-term support at $106.50.  Long over $106.50 accompanied by volume with a stop beneath the rising 50 for a swing trade could be a good entry point.

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$ATPG Possible Entry 11/09/10

Posted by Dino on November 9, 2010

So ATPG has been trying to break out of a downtrend since the middle of July when Drillers took it on the chin with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill this spring that continued on to the summer.   While some of the companies still have some major liabilities associated with the spill ATPG has been caught up in the moratorium.  If you want to read up on some of ATPG issues talk to @gtotoy and @paulwoll.  They have been on top of ATPG for a while.  There’s a good article on a Quarterly letter form Greenlight Capital located here.

As for a technical entry point there is a possibility of a decent entry opening up the next couple of days.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

From the low on 10/28  of $13.83 to the high of 16.48 yesterday you can draw a Fib retracement and we have yet to reach the 50% retracement around $15.20.  This would be an ideal entry point if it can get down there for a good risk reward if you set up your position size correctly.  Beneath the $15.20 entry lies a number of possible support areas:

1.  The $14.80 area was resistance on 8/5 and it should now provide support.

2.  This $14.80 is also the area of 61.8% retracement support.

3.  The $14.40 area is the 200 day simple moving average support which is starting to flatten out.

4.  Just beneath the current 200 day sma is ascending trend line support .

5.  Rising 50 day sma at $13.74

So take a look at these technical entry/support areas, read up on ATPG fundies and make up your own mind as to if you’d like  to take part in the move.   As always, utilize proper risk management and enjoy the ride.

Yep, you guessed it.  I’m long ATPG.

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Nothing to see here…move along people. 11/9/10 $SPY $DIA $IWM $QQQQ

Posted by Dino on November 9, 2010

Today was a good day….unless you bought some Silver around 1:00 pm eastern this afternoon….then you got your ass handed to you in a hurry.  The fact is we had a moderate pull back in all of the indices with moderate volume.  It happens and is a good thing.  People that get out of the market and take their profits are replaced with people who want to add at these lower prices.  I would like to see a slightly further pull back and some consolidation for a week or two so that the gains we’ve had since the beginning of September can be digested and we have a healthy, stable move higher with support at the top of this consolidation.  Building base-on-base support as we move up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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