Wall Street Crack

For Those Addicted to the Wall Street Game

Archive for April, 2011

“Learning to be Comfortable being Uncomfortable – Trading Psychology from Baseball $Study – HT @hubertsenters

Posted by Dino on April 12, 2011

Here’s an excellent video on baseball psychology and how it’s helped Evan Longoria with his game.  Longoria’s mental discipline is quite impressive.  These lessons can easily be transferred to the trading world.

“More than anything else Ravizza Preaches the gospel of mental preparation and structure.  Teaches players to recognize failure as an unavoidable part of the game, and how not to dwell on it.  Ken Rivizza has written a few things on his techniques including Heads-Up Baseball : Playing the Game One Pitch at a Time.  Seems like it could be easily titled “Heads-up Trading: Playing the Market One Trade at a Time”.  I’ll be ordering my copy today.

E:60 Evan Longoria from E60 on Vimeo.

 

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Possible $F Long Swing Entry 4-8-11

Posted by Dino on April 11, 2011

Ford is pulling back nicely today setting up a nice risk/reward trade.  From the lows of 3/15 to the highs of 4/6 we have reached a 50% fib retracement with declining volume (we’ll see how today pans out in regards to volume).  An entry near the 50% retracement of $14.85 with a stop near the 61.8% retracement at $14.60.  1st target would be a retest of the 4/6 highs of $15.98. Risk about .25 to get $1.  1:4 risk to reward.

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Government Shutdown Looms. What will the market do? $SPY

Posted by Dino on April 8, 2011

As the 2 sides bicker back and forth over a few billion dollars, it appears that we are destined for the US Federal Government business to come to a halt.  Regardless of who is at fault, millions of Americans will be affected.  What will the market do?  How will it be affected?  The only thing we can do is take a look at past shut downs to give us an idea of what may take place.

In 1995 & 1996 a Democratic President fought with a Republican controlled Congress over the federal budget resulting in 2 shutdowns from November 14 through November 18, 1995 and December 16, 1195 through January 6, 1996. The only difference between the participants then and now is that the Republicans controlled both the Senate and the House and today, the Democrats control the Senate and the Republicans control the House.

The SPY was still in its infancy and only traded about 100k-300k shares per day.  This is minuscule when compared to todays average of  176 million shares per day but it gives us a decent representation of what was taking place.   As you can see, back then the shut down didn’t appear to have much affect at all on the day-to-day trading of the markets.  Lets hope this shut down has little bearing on trading next week.

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Transocean celebrates ‘best year in safety’? $RIG

Posted by Dino on April 4, 2011

If this had been released on April 1st I would have thought this was an amazing April Fools joke….

From Politico

Transocean, the company that operated the ill-fated Deepwater Horizon oil rig that killed 11 people when it exploded last April, is so enthralled with its safety record that it’s paying bonuses to its executives.

In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Transocean acknowledges the loss of life and the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, but otherwise gives itself a pat on the back.

“Notwithstanding the tragic loss of life in the Gulf of Mexico, we achieved an exemplary statistical safety record as measured by our total recordable incident rate (‘TRIR’) and total potential severity rate (‘TPSR’),” Transocean wrote. “As measured by these standards, we recorded the best year in safety performance in our Company’s history, which is a reflection on our commitment to achieving an incident free environment, all the time, everywhere.”

The Wall Street Journal reported the SEC filing on Saturday. The paper noted the rate of incidents per 200,000 hours that employees work, declined 4 percent from 2009, and the potential severity from those incidents fell by nearly 15 percent.

A Transocean spokesman told the paper: “The statements of fact in the proxy speak for themselves, but they do not and can not adequately convey the extent to which everyone at Transocean is keeping the families of the men who lost their lives at Macondo in their thoughts and prayers as we approach the first anniversary of the incident

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0411/52463.html#ixzz1IZ4zM7Ec

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Updating Position Spreadsheet

Posted by Dino on April 3, 2011

If you’ve haven’t noticed, I haven’t updated my position spreadsheet in a little while.  I’ve been having troubles with my data link from Excel to Thinkorswim.  Every time I enable the link my spreadsheet freezes.  I’ve decided to switch to Google Spreadsheets and I’m currently working on transferring all of the data and embedding it into this blog.  Should have it done in the next day or so.

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@CharlieSheen Bombs in Detroit….Is that really a Surprise? #notwinning

Posted by Dino on April 2, 2011

What the hell was he thinking?  Even better, what the hell were the people who paid to see this thinking?!?!?!?!

Seriously….telling the people from Detroit that “Detroit was a good place to tell crack stories” probably wasn’t a wise move.

I’d like to know who the comedian was who took on this suicide mission.

From: http://insidetv.ew.com/2011/04/02/charlie-sheen-tour-review/

First the U.S. automaker recession, and now this. Charlie Sheen unleashed his Violent Torpedo of Truth Tour on the Motor City on Saturday night. We’re on the scene now — refresh for updates.

10:05 — More comments from people leaving early: “I was expecting a comedy show.” “It’s just like hanging out at his house.”

10:03 — The show is now an unmitigated disaster. People are leaving early. Attendee Chris Acchione, who came all the way from Toronto for the show, says, “He’s making a fool of himself. Is there a bigger loser in the world?”

9:50 — The show appears to be almost over. More padding.

9:43 — Sheen tells the audience, “You paid your hard-earned money without knowing what this show was about.” He asks if people have any questions. A girl from the audience asks for his best pornstar story. Sheen doesn’t want to tell that one. He’s starts telling a story about getting his car stolen — he says the story involves crack — but nobody wants to hear it.

9:40 — Sheen says he’s going to “Tell some stories about crack. I figured Detroit was a good place to tell some crack stories. Show of hands who here has tried crack? I don’t do crack anymore, but this is a good f—ing night to do some crack.” The audience boos.

9:35 — The show started late and has become a padded and disjointed mess. Currently onstage, an old lame movie starring Johnny Depp is playing. (I think the film is called RPG?) People are booing. Sheen stops the video and says, “Okay, so RPG was a bomb. Tonight is an experiment.” This is a disaster.

9:23 — We are watching video of Charlie Sheen playing Call of Duty.

9:20 — People start booing. Sheen yells, “I already got your money, dude!”

9:18 – “Nothing terrifies a troll more than its own reflection,” Sheen continues, before shifting gears into politics. “In a recent poll, they told me I’d bring down that whore Palin. I don’t have time for that nonsense.” [Read about the poll he’s referring to here.]

9:15 — Nobody understands a word Sheen is saying. “”Is anybody else as confused by this s— as I am?” he finally asks. There are roars from the crowd. “I wrote every word!”

9:13 – Sheen: “They took my awesome children… They took my sometimes bitchin job… And when they thought there was nothing left, they tried to take my titanium heart and brain and spine. But they could not.” It’s all pump-up, no narrative.

9:10 — Sheen’s promises are largely incomprehensible: “Freedom from monkey eyed…sweat-eating whores. Freedom from the dour and sour taste of malignant reproach… I’m a giant and leaky bag of mayhem.”

9:08 — Sheen: “I am finally here to identify and train the Vatican assassin locked inside each and every one of you.”

9:07 — Sheen steps behind a podium that proclaims “Warlock States of Sheen.” A guitarist who looks like Robert Pattinson is playing onstage. Sheen begins talking about his “napalm dripping brain.” “I’m here to solve a portion of this grand mystery,” he says. 

9:00 — The attractive singers are now making out onstage. And finally, Charlie Sheen takes the stage. He picks a Two and a Half Men-style shirt off a rack, and puts it on. The audience boos. The Two and a Half Men theme song plays. This is intercut with a scene from a classic film of a man screaming “Turn it off!” Then, Sheen grabs a Detroit Tigers shirt. The crowd roars and gives him a standing ovation. Regarding the Men shirt, Sheen says, “Take that out and burn it.” On video, the attractive singers/(pornstars?) burn the shirt backstage.

8:58 — Now film clips are playing onscreen. Die HardMidnight ExpressTaxi DriverAnimal House, Sheen’s own PlatoonFast Times at Ridgemont High, and (of course) Apocalypse Now. There’s no context, just the clips. One imagines it’s like being inside Sheen’s head.

8:53 — The show begins with a mock iPhone ad, advertising the “MaSheen.” Afterwards, two very attractive women come onstage to sing the national anthem. “Do it topless!” one audience member shouts. (They initially appear to be Sheen’s “goddesses,” but a guy next to me says they are “Detroit porn stars.” One of them is named Lisa Jax.)

8:32 — That’s weird. The lights have come back up, and the audience is waiting again. Everyone is confused — it’s not clear why the show started and then stopped again. So far, this has the makings of a disaster, the Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark of celebrity stage acts.

8:30 — This is a truly disastrous opening. The comedian has been literally booed off the stage.

8:22 — Here is just a sample of this painful opening act: “Shouldn’t they call the difibrillator a difibra-now?”

8:19 — Sheen himself comes out to defend the comedian, telling the audience to give him a chance. He receives a standing ovation. Sheen says that he’ll be right back out, and exits. The crowd does not sit down until he leaves the stage. The comedian continues his set. Problem: This is a rock concert atmosphere, and nobody wants a stand-up act. They’re here for the warlock.

8:17 — The comedian starts a joke: “I found out exactly how I’m going to die…” Someone in the audience yells, “Yeah, onstage!” Note to comedians: If Charlie Sheen asks you to open for him, say “No.”

8:13 — A comedian who is decisively not Charlie Sheen comes onstage and begins a set. There is some booing from the audience, followed by chanting: “Charlie! Charlie!” The booing gets louder.

 

 

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$CTXS Basing under 75.75 but maybe a bit extended short term

Posted by Dino on April 1, 2011

CTXS is basing under $75.75 intraday but if it tries to break out it may have a hard time continuing northward.  It’s had a heck of a run the past few days being at a low of 65.84 just about a week ago.  If it does run and hold this thing has a bit more strength then I expected.

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Well…What’s it gonna be?

Posted by Dino on April 1, 2011

NFP came out this morning and we’ve added jobs (+216k) so will we continue higher or will they sell into this strength?  The numbers came in slightly ahead of expectations but still inline.

So far this morning the S&P is up about 0.6 % and the Dow is up about 0.5%.  Seems like a bit of a weak open for an improving job situation.  I thinking we may have a gap and crap scenario here where we pop in the first 30 minutes and pull back a bit.  Failure to follow through this morning may lead to some profit taking over the next few days until buyers step in and we find support but ultimately I think we’ll run up to 135o on the S&P’s barring any other unforeseen circumstances.

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