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Archive for the ‘Market’ Category

“Learning to be Comfortable being Uncomfortable – Trading Psychology from Baseball $Study – HT @hubertsenters

Posted by Dino on April 12, 2011

Here’s an excellent video on baseball psychology and how it’s helped Evan Longoria with his game.  Longoria’s mental discipline is quite impressive.  These lessons can easily be transferred to the trading world.

“More than anything else Ravizza Preaches the gospel of mental preparation and structure.  Teaches players to recognize failure as an unavoidable part of the game, and how not to dwell on it.  Ken Rivizza has written a few things on his techniques including Heads-Up Baseball : Playing the Game One Pitch at a Time.  Seems like it could be easily titled “Heads-up Trading: Playing the Market One Trade at a Time”.  I’ll be ordering my copy today.

E:60 Evan Longoria from E60 on Vimeo.

 

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Possible $F Long Swing Entry 4-8-11

Posted by Dino on April 11, 2011

Ford is pulling back nicely today setting up a nice risk/reward trade.  From the lows of 3/15 to the highs of 4/6 we have reached a 50% fib retracement with declining volume (we’ll see how today pans out in regards to volume).  An entry near the 50% retracement of $14.85 with a stop near the 61.8% retracement at $14.60.  1st target would be a retest of the 4/6 highs of $15.98. Risk about .25 to get $1.  1:4 risk to reward.

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Government Shutdown Looms. What will the market do? $SPY

Posted by Dino on April 8, 2011

As the 2 sides bicker back and forth over a few billion dollars, it appears that we are destined for the US Federal Government business to come to a halt.  Regardless of who is at fault, millions of Americans will be affected.  What will the market do?  How will it be affected?  The only thing we can do is take a look at past shut downs to give us an idea of what may take place.

In 1995 & 1996 a Democratic President fought with a Republican controlled Congress over the federal budget resulting in 2 shutdowns from November 14 through November 18, 1995 and December 16, 1195 through January 6, 1996. The only difference between the participants then and now is that the Republicans controlled both the Senate and the House and today, the Democrats control the Senate and the Republicans control the House.

The SPY was still in its infancy and only traded about 100k-300k shares per day.  This is minuscule when compared to todays average of  176 million shares per day but it gives us a decent representation of what was taking place.   As you can see, back then the shut down didn’t appear to have much affect at all on the day-to-day trading of the markets.  Lets hope this shut down has little bearing on trading next week.

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Transocean celebrates ‘best year in safety’? $RIG

Posted by Dino on April 4, 2011

If this had been released on April 1st I would have thought this was an amazing April Fools joke….

From Politico

Transocean, the company that operated the ill-fated Deepwater Horizon oil rig that killed 11 people when it exploded last April, is so enthralled with its safety record that it’s paying bonuses to its executives.

In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Transocean acknowledges the loss of life and the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, but otherwise gives itself a pat on the back.

“Notwithstanding the tragic loss of life in the Gulf of Mexico, we achieved an exemplary statistical safety record as measured by our total recordable incident rate (‘TRIR’) and total potential severity rate (‘TPSR’),” Transocean wrote. “As measured by these standards, we recorded the best year in safety performance in our Company’s history, which is a reflection on our commitment to achieving an incident free environment, all the time, everywhere.”

The Wall Street Journal reported the SEC filing on Saturday. The paper noted the rate of incidents per 200,000 hours that employees work, declined 4 percent from 2009, and the potential severity from those incidents fell by nearly 15 percent.

A Transocean spokesman told the paper: “The statements of fact in the proxy speak for themselves, but they do not and can not adequately convey the extent to which everyone at Transocean is keeping the families of the men who lost their lives at Macondo in their thoughts and prayers as we approach the first anniversary of the incident

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0411/52463.html#ixzz1IZ4zM7Ec

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$CTXS Basing under 75.75 but maybe a bit extended short term

Posted by Dino on April 1, 2011

CTXS is basing under $75.75 intraday but if it tries to break out it may have a hard time continuing northward.  It’s had a heck of a run the past few days being at a low of 65.84 just about a week ago.  If it does run and hold this thing has a bit more strength then I expected.

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Well…What’s it gonna be?

Posted by Dino on April 1, 2011

NFP came out this morning and we’ve added jobs (+216k) so will we continue higher or will they sell into this strength?  The numbers came in slightly ahead of expectations but still inline.

So far this morning the S&P is up about 0.6 % and the Dow is up about 0.5%.  Seems like a bit of a weak open for an improving job situation.  I thinking we may have a gap and crap scenario here where we pop in the first 30 minutes and pull back a bit.  Failure to follow through this morning may lead to some profit taking over the next few days until buyers step in and we find support but ultimately I think we’ll run up to 135o on the S&P’s barring any other unforeseen circumstances.

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10 Companies Affected by the Disaster in Japan via @wallstCS

Posted by Dino on March 20, 2011

Wall St Cheat Sheet posted 10 companies with the greatest exposure to Japan and may be greatly affected by the disaster.

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/trading/10-u-s-companies-with-a-heavy-reliance-on-japanese-sales.html

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A lot of catchin’ up to do….

Posted by Dino on March 17, 2011

Busyness had kept me from updating for a while.  Now that March Madness is upon us, I’ll be able to sit down an actually catch up on things while watching the Spartys make their Final Four run!  Keeping fingers crossed but not betting the farm on it.

Anyway….Tragedy in Japan, unrest in Bahrain (and most of the rest of the Middle East for that matter) and worldwide nuclear fears has sent us on a crazy roller coaster ride.  Updates and reviews will come in the next couple of days as I sip on some tasty beverages.

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Ya win some, ya lose some. $JDSU $FNSR

Posted by Dino on March 8, 2011

You had to have known JSDU was a violent one.  $18 to $29 in just over a week?  Yep, this one can move.  It was plainly obvious.  You absolutely have to know and realize this kind of thing before entering a trade of any type.  Not saying I expected something like this though.  FNSR down almost 40% after hours?!?!?  JDSU down around 14% even though it reported great earnings and slightly raised guidance just over a month ago.  Have things changed THAT much in just 1 month?  I don’t know for sure.  I would expect JDSU to gap down not much less than $22 tomorrow morning and buyers will swoop in to buy that weakness.  I’m just keeping in mind that the market doesn’t care what I think and I may be absolutely wrong.

I am long JDSU a full position but a full position relative to its volatility.  If it opens up much lower than $22 I’ll be pushing the limit of my overall risk tolerance.  It’s going to open lower that’s for sure.  The only question is how much lower and how will I work my exit?   Pretty much as I always do in situations like this.  If a stock opens up lower than my stop I will usually wait out the first 30 minutes of trading and watch the action.  If it settles near its open by that time I’ll set a stop at the lows and continue to raise up the stop.  If it continues down on heavy volume I’m gonna have to get rid of it no questions asked.  Take my loss like a man and prepare for the next trade better equipped than I was yesterday.

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Possible Swing Entries For Next Week: $APKT $DECK $LEN $MTW

Posted by Dino on March 6, 2011

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